53 April Thoughts on COVID-19
Four months ago I posted a long and scatter-brained list of my thoughts on COVID-19 onto Facebook. As I mention in my little introduction (see below) many people had put me into a “COVID-19 box” as either a “statist idolater” a supporter of “big pharma” and so on and so on. So with this list I hoped to clarify a number of misconceptions without writing a series of long articles.
I just went back and read what I wrote four months ago concerning COVID-19. When I decided to go back and read my 53 thoughts, I expected to be proven wrong on a few points. After all, so much has changed. We have gone through various popular conspiracy theories, the official story has shifted more than once, and there seems to be a new COVID related controversy every week. Instead, while my thoughts are still scattered and rather unedited, but they're probably even more relevant today than they were four months ago. The only thing I've changed is that I attached an image and this introduction.
Everything I wrote then still applies today, not because I'm a medical genius or a prophet, but because I wrote about what I knew about. I didn't make a lot of medical speculations and I didn't plant my flag for the conspiracy of the week or the expert opinion of the week. What I do know is that there is a third option besides believing the politized institutional narrative or buying into the ever-morphing trending alternative theory. That third option is humility and relying upon the providence of God. That is, in essence, what I was trying to communicate in my recent article on humility. I have had many opinions about COVID over the last several months. Some have been vindicated, some opinions have changed, while many others are still uncertain. I am by no means batting 1000 on my COVID predictions. However, I decided a long time ago to not present all of my opinions on this subject as fact. So now, four months later, I don’t find myself embarrassed by my social media epidemiology predictions.
Let me know what you think about these April thoughts. Are they still relevant in August? Moving forward, how can we best demonstrate the love and wisdom of God in the face of fear, paranoia, and controversy?
The following is from April.
In the last few weeks, I have made a small handful of posts related to COVID-19 research and related issues. I have steered away from public policy discussions because I was still rolling some ideas around in my head. I don’t want to overinflate the importance of my own amateur opinions. Still, more than one person has asked for my thoughts on public policy, and even more, people have taken it upon themselves to assume that they know my thoughts on public policy when I have made comments about public health. Many of these points are somewhat scattered and I, frankly, don’t have the time or the energy to write a proper article.
I’ll start with some basics.
Introductory Points
Weeks ago I told my girlfriend that I didn’t want to comment on public policy concerning COVID-19 or the medical facts of COVID-19 because, simply, I wasn’t confident in any of my initial thoughts and feelings concerning these specific issues. I wasn’t confident in my ability to discern Ph.D. level dynamic statistics and I wasn’t confident in my ability to play Facebook epidemiology after reading a handful of articles or after watching a YouTube video or two. This is why I haven’t commented much on the policy decisions.
Over the last several weeks, and after reading and watching more than my fair share of articles and videos, I am still very hesitant to say with any level of certainty what my views are on the medical and statistical details of the virus itself. Lo and behold, I’m still not a statistician or a scientist and I want to be very slow to speak with confident certainty on topics that I am not only formally uneducated in but also informally uneducated in. This is why few of my points will deal directly with science or statistical theory.
What I will say about the severity of the virus itself is that it has become increasingly obvious that many actual experts disagree on the specifics, but almost all of them believe the virus is 1) very contagious and 2) potentially very dangerous to the elderly and those who are at risk due to other medical diagnoses. Projections are just that. Projections. Experts that have a great deal of unity on the core facts will often come to different conclusions on mapped out projections. This isn’t alarming and it is also not evidence that the data is somehow falsified. Experts can disagree and especially in medicine.
Biblical Ethics and Theology
Theonomic law prescribes quarantining when the sick are showing symptoms and, sometimes, when individuals have had contact with the sick.
These theonomic laws, however, are typically specific about the disease and the diseases in the text are the sort that have clear symptoms soon after infection.
The application of these Levitical quarantine laws should allow for logical flexibility depending on what disease is being dealt with. For example, it would not be reasonable at all to follow the letter of the text and only search for severe skin sores when dealing with a pathogen that does not have skin sores as a symptom.
Surely these texts were not meant to be a medical textbook, but rather, as we know, case law. They are providing a template for application meant to be applied to other situations.
Because of these points, I believe it is reasonable to be at least open to the idea of taking into account asymptomatic carriers of modern viruses. In theory, it would make sense to extend quarantines to those in communities where outbreaks have been confirmed in. It makes less sense to quarantine areas with no outbreaks.
So, in theory, it makes good theonomic sense for the civil magistrate to not only quarantine symptomatic people, but also sometimes quarantine both symptomatic and non-symptomatic people in certain geographical areas. Frankly, I’m uncertain about the non-symptomatic part and THAT part is the controversial part.
But that’s just theoretical anyway. Functionally, our nation is not justified in most of these quarantines/lockdowns.
Why do I think the mass lockdowns are unjustified? A while back, I wrote an article on Iran and just war theory. I called for a more holistic view of just war. I wrote, “For a Christian, Just War also means first being a just nation, the political and military leaders truly having righteous motives, and how we go about conducting that war.” I think we should apply the same reasoning to this situation.
In theory, the US may have some theonomic justification for forced quarantines, but the US is 1) not just to begin with, 2) bureaucrats and politicians are taking advantage of the situation regardless of facts pertaining to the medical situation itself, and 3) how the lockdowns are being conducted is not logical, reasonable, or justified.
Therefore, according to the three points I listed regarding just war, the current lockdowns aren’t righteous. At least not the vast majority of those which I’m familiar with.
Though the civil magistrate may be overstepping in its policies, in certain cases, the ecclesiastical jurisdiction could play a legitimate role in sanctioning gross medical negligence. This would, of course, need to be a case by case thing and I also want to say that the Church can overstep it’s due jurisdiction just as easily as the state.
Regarding the Church, both the world and the state has long filled the gap left by the Church when the Church has been negligent in its duties. When the Church does not teach on true justice, the state does its own thing ineffectively and with corruption. When the Church does not seek to heal the sick, the state does it ineffectively and with corruption. When the Church does not educate children, the state does it ineffectively and with corruption. Now, when the Church obstinately refuses to make sacrifices to protect others, the state does it ineffectively and with corruption.
It’s one thing to be in denial of the dangers, but it’s altogether another thing to acknowledge the danger and care more about the songs, teachings, and the rituals of the Christian assembly than the life and health of the assembly itself.
There are many different historical examples of Church leaders taking contagious medical emergencies very seriously and treating it like a “love your neighbor issue.” See https://www.lambsreign.com/blog/y7bb1ns53t3kxhk5xkuxb8na2pofwx
A good deed is still a good deed even when an unrighteous institution forces it upon you.
Economic Thoughts
Before my intellectual love was theology and ethics, it was economics. I hail from the Austrian School of economic thought and am familiar with most of the “recommended reading.”
In short, I don’t think the pandemic will be fixed by bureaucrats.
I recently came out of being unemployed and I care deeply for those being affected.
Though I do care about loss of jobs and hypothetical future deaths caused by an economic downturn (a real problem), the theonomic focus is on those with immediate medical need as opposed to future financial problems. Hypothetical future suffering can be answered with charity and should be. Current medical danger has to be addressed today.
The US government is unable to adequately discern what businesses or jobs are “nonessential”. Our economy (any economy really) is a vast and complex system of interconnected jobs, services, businesses, and logistics. No civil government can ever reasonably ascertain, compile, and effectively analyze the raw amount of data needed to manage an economy, much less mandate to the nation which jobs are “essential” or not. See Hayek’s theory of knowledge.
During a pandemic, it is wise, when possible, to do business in such a manner that limits the exposure of others. If it is not possible to do business in such a manner, do what you can including temporarily and voluntarily closing. I was encouraged to see many businesses (including my own) make workflow changes before there was an official lockdown.
Certain third world nations are especially at risk of mass starvation due to economic shutdowns. A governmental one-size-fits-all international solution will not work and has never worked.
Conspiracies and Fear
We should be wary of “Ivory Tower” academic elitism while still maintaining humility when venturing into specialized fields we probably didn’t even know the name of a few months ago. I think that’s a reasonable stance. We can have opinions, question things, and think about things, but we should do these things with a stance of humility.
Like I have said elsewhere, there is a huge difference between the sort of person who is uncertain on some of the statistical details, and the sort of person who denies that the virus even exists. There’s a huge difference between the person who reasonably believes that folks are influenced by ideological presuppositions and the folks who believe that an army of nurses are under the financial influence of George Soros and are all putting in fake reports of working long hours or not having enough PPE.
Being discerning enough to doubt certain scientific claims that clash with a Christian worldview on a theological/philosophical level is not the same thing as being a scientific contrarian who disagrees just because it’s the accepted scientific position.
We shouldn’t quickly jump to explain things that are not readily obvious with conspiracy theories.
A lack of medical PPE shortages at X location does not equal a lack of shortages everywhere.
In order to even begin suggesting that there has been a radical shift in policy meant to pad COVID-19 numbers, one must have something to compare the policy change with. One can’t make claims about X being significantly unlike Y when you only know the value of X. You can’t compare one thing with nothing at all and make radical claims about a significant difference. Doing so only proves that you began with a conclusion in mind and just stuck with it absent any evidence.
Anything that you haven’t personally seen isn’t a “straw man” or “fake news.” Kinda like how when some of my upper-middle-class white acquaintances say they haven’t experienced or seen a lot of racism (that they’ve noticed), that doesn’t mean their personal lack of experience is evidence.
The “alternative media” isn’t categorically more honest than the “mainstream media.” The alternative media just wants to be the mainstream.
We should fear nothing and nobody but Christ our Lord. However, preparation and caution for the sake of our health and other’s health is not fear. That is wisdom and love.
Fear-mongering about a coming economic apocalypse is hardly any better than fear-mongering about a coming medical apocalypse. Let’s chill it with the sensational apocalyptic language. #datpostmill
The news (including alternative news sources à la Alex Jones, Candace Owens, Rush Limbaugh types) and various politicians on both sides of the aisle will always foment fear and paranoia for their own financial and political interests. This opportunism and exploitation, however, is not new. We should call this out without flinging ourselves into the other ditch.
At the same time, “just because you’re paranoid it doesn’t mean they’re not after you.” Conspiracies do happen and some theories are true. However, that does not mean buying into a conspiracy should be something done ten minutes after seeing a Facebook image of a twitter post.
As Dr. Gary North said about some conspiracy theorists (he calls himself one), “Someone who believes that a conspiracy is behind everything, and therefore believes that all official stories are corrupted by special interests or the desire to deceive, is in a position of never being able to understand any aspect of history. That is to say, visible cause-and-effect in history has no effect on his thinking. He cannot come to grips with causality in history, because he interprets all history, whether written or unwritten, as the outcome of hidden forces that never reveal the truth to anyone outside the conspiracy.” (https://www.garynorth.com/public/15472.cfm)
Also from Hayek. “Emergencies have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.”
Very real emergencies can be exploited. One mistake some conspiracy theorists make is in equating a situation that is being exploited as a false flag or as a hoax.
If Christians fall into the trap of thinking there is a COVID-19 related government conspiracy under every rock, our calls against real government overreach (like the mass lockdowns) will only sound more and more like ranting about just another conspiracy theory.
Other Points
One thing recent times, medical statistics, etc. have taught me, is that we need to take other forms of non-controversial deadly contagious viruses more seriously, not that we should take the current controversial virus less seriously.
Apathy is not only restricted to issues like abortion, but many other things we have failed to consider or take seriously.
Our own personal experiences, or our lack of personal experience, has created a culture of apathy and calloused uncaring wherein the immune-deficient and the elderly dying of viruses like COVID-19, different strains of SARS, or different strains of influenza is seen as a statistical forgone conclusion.
There’s very rarely much thought or care taken when socializing, educating, or worshiping while contagious, and although there will always be death from common sicknesses, death is still a part of the curse and there are things we can do better to love those who are more vulnerable. We, culturally, expect certain kinds of death, and because it’s expected, we fail to care. It’s the same dynamic when poor minorities die because of gun violence and no one really cares, but when upper-middle-class white kids die, it’s a disaster. One is expected and one is not. The solution isn’t to view both in an uncaring and callused way, but rather care a great deal about both.
Instead of letting comparison stats further feed into apathy, we should acknowledge that many of us have blind spots based on our own immediate sphere of concern, and that’s something that we need to repent of in humility.
Though this shouldn’t be a governmental mandate, businesses should think seriously about how they feed into the “work while sick” American culture. A cultural pressure on workers to come to work when sick even though official policy says otherwise is common.
Many people may work sick because of an economic need, and that should also be a concern of not just businesses but also the Church. Many parents also work sick so they can take off when their kids are sick. If people are being put in medically dangerous situations so they can feed or care for their family, that is precisely where the Church should step in.
There are ways of expounding upon statistics that does not fail to show empathy and care for those who have, are, and will be suffering.
Edward Snowden’s warning about surveillance should be listened to. (https://www.businessinsider.com/edward-snowden-coronavirus-surveillance-new-powers-2020-3)
I agree with Thomas Massie on the stimulus. It’s a scam. Just give our tax money back if you want to help.
Whenever this is over and the extent of the damage is far more clear, extend grace to those who were too quick to speak and too quick to spread paranoia and misinformation. Do not play “I told you so”, but rather use this as a learning tool for future pandemics. As always, judge specific situations judicially, as opposed to a one size fits all condemnation.
Whoever ends up as “right,” show grace. Whoever is wrong, show humility. The Church can do better in both of those points, that’s for sure.